European Trust in U.S. as Ally Falls to Record Low, ECFR Poll Finds

BRUSSELS - The numbers are stark and they are moving in one direction only. A survey published Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that barely one in ten Europeans now regards the United States as an ally - the lowest figure since tracking on the question began, and a halving of the share recorded just eighteen months ago.

The poll, conducted in May across 15 European countries and covering 19,481 adults, put the share describing America as an ally at 11 percent, according to figures reported by the Guardian and confirmed by ECFR's own communications. That is down from 16 percent six months ago and from 22 percent in November 2024. About half of all respondents instead called the United States a "necessary partner" - a formulation that signals utility without warmth - while 13 percent used the word "competitor" and 12 percent chose "hostile nation."

The timing is pointed. The survey was released days before the G7 summit in Evian, France, scheduled for June 15 to 17, and before a European Council meeting on June 18 and 19, at which leaders are expected to address defence spending and security guarantees. The ECFR researchers appear to have calibrated the release deliberately, seeding the public debate ahead of both gatherings.

The deeper finding may be the one about collective defence. Majorities in every country surveyed expressed doubt that the United States would come to their aid if they were attacked, according to ECFR's published summary. In Spain, only 12 percent felt certain the U.S. would help in a crisis; in Austria, the figure was 15 percent. The survey pointed to what researchers described as "deep European distrust" of Washington, a phrase that would have been unimaginable in NATO communiqués a decade ago.

Jana Kobzova, a senior policy fellow at ECFR and co-author of the report, said the findings showed "a growing perception across Europe that dependency on the United States should be reduced." Her co-author Pawel Zerka argued the results reflected a political window for European leaders to move faster on defence self-reliance - a window that may not stay open indefinitely.

The poll also captured something less expected: a willingness among European publics to pay for their own security. Support for higher military spending was four percentage points higher than a year earlier. On the more contested question of collective EU borrowing to fund defence, 47 percent were in favour and 35 percent opposed - a meaningful majority for an instrument that remains politically difficult inside the bloc.

The backdrop driving these numbers is not hard to identify. American military strikes on Iran, threats over Greenland's status, public scepticism from Washington about NATO's mutual-defence clause, and pressure on Kyiv without a durable peace settlement have all landed in European public consciousness. The ECFR poll lands a week after Russian GPS signal interference affecting large regions of the continent was reported, a reminder that threat perceptions in Europe are shaped by events closer to home as well as by decisions taken in Washington.

Europe's foreign-policy establishment has been telling itself for two years that public opinion was ahead of political leaders on defence. This survey suggests the gap has widened further. The question heading into Evian and Brussels is whether the leaders now arriving at those summit tables are ready to move at the speed the data suggests their publics would accept - or whether, as analysts in both cities have been noting, the structural constraints of 27-member decision-making will once again slow the pace.

Sources cited:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) (https://ecfr.eu/)
- Newsmax / ECFR Poll Report (https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/ecfr-poll-europe-united-states/2026/06/10/id/1259212/)
- Graphic News / ECFR Poll Summary (https://www.graphicnews.com/en/pages/48114/politics-european-faith-in-us-alliance-slumps)
- Barlamantoday / Reuters citing ECFR (https://barlamantoday.com/2026/06/11/europeans-trust-in-us-as-ally-falls-to-record-low-survey-finds/)
- The Asia Business Daily / ECFR Poll (https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/world-general/2026061021302492597)
- EU Council Meeting Calendar (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/)